Risk And PreMortem

Preamble

Risk And PreMortem names how the decision could fail before confidence hardens.

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Failure Should Arrive Early

The audit brings failure into the room before commitment hardens. A decision that has no failure story is usually borrowing confidence from the preferred story.

Risk Needs Handles

The premortem names concrete failure modes, downside, reversibility, kill criteria, early warning signals, and mitigation options. A vague fear cannot guide action. A visible failure signal can.

A Premortem Is A Debt Ledger

Every decision borrows against a future outcome. The premortem records what I am risking, what would prove the bet is breaking, and when I promised to stop pretending the warning signs are noise.